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Climate change is radically altering coral reef ecosystems, mainly through increasingly frequent and severe bleaching events. Yet, some reefs have exhibited higher thermal tolerance after bleaching severely the first time. To understand changes in thermal tolerance in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), we compiled four decades of temperature, coral cover, coral bleaching, and mortality data, including three mass bleaching events during the 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 El Niño heatwaves. Higher heat resistance in later bleaching events was detected in the dominant framework-building genus, Pocillopora, while other coral taxa exhibited similar susceptibility across events. Genetic analyses of Pocillopora spp . colonies and their algal symbionts (2014 to 2016) revealed that one of two Pocillopora lineages present in the region ( Pocillopora “ type 1”) increased its association with thermotolerant algal symbionts ( Durusdinium glynnii ) during the 2015 to 2016 heat stress event. This lineage experienced lower bleaching and mortality compared with Pocillopora “type 3”, which did not acquire D. glynnii . Under projected thermal stress, ETP reefs may be able to preserve high coral cover through the 2060s or later, mainly composed of Pocillopora colonies that associate with D. glynnii . However, although the low-diversity, high-cover reefs of the ETP could illustrate a potential functional state for some future reefs, this state may only be temporary unless global greenhouse gas emissions and resultant global warming are curtailed. 

Abstract Thermal stress is expected to compromise the persistence of tropical corals throughout their biogeographic ranges, making many reefs inhospitable to corals by the end of the century. We integrated models of local predictions of thermal stress throughout the coming century, coral larval dispersal, and the persistence of a coral’s metapopulation(s) in the Caribbean to investigate broad trends in metapopulation fragmentation and decline. As coral reef patches become inhospitable throughout the next century, the metapopulation of Orbicella annularis is predicted to fragment, with sub-networks centered around highly connected patches and thermal refuges. Some of these are predicted to include the reefs of Colombia, Panama, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Southern and Northern Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas. Unknown coral population demographic parameters, such as lifetime egg production and stock-recruitment rates, limit the model’s predictions; however, a sensitivity analysis demonstrates that broadscale patterns of fragmentation and metapopulation collapse before the end of the century are consistent across a range of potential parameterizations. Despite dire predictions, the model highlights the potential value in protecting and restoring coral populations at strategic locations that are highly connected and/or influential to persistence. Coordinated conservation activities that support local resilience at low coral cover have the potential to stave off metapopulation collapse for decades, buying valuable time. Thermal refuges are linchpins of metapopulation persistence during moderate thermal stress, and targeted conservation or restoration that supports connectivity between these refuges by enhancing local population growth or sexual propagation may be critically important to species conservation on coral reefs. 

The rapid loss of reef-building corals owing to ocean warming is driving the development of interventions such as coral propagation and restoration, selective breeding and assisted gene flow. Many of these interventions target naturally heat-tolerant individuals to boost climate resilience, but the challenges of quickly and reliably quantifying heat tolerance and identifying thermotolerant individuals have hampered implementation. Here, we used coral bleaching automated stress systems to perform rapid, standardized heat tolerance assays on 229 colonies of Acropora cervicornis across six coral nurseries spanning Florida's Coral Reef, USA. Analysis of heat stress dose–response curves for each colony revealed a broad range in thermal tolerance among individuals (approx. 2.5°C range in F v /F m ED50), with highly reproducible rankings across independent tests ( r = 0.76). Most phenotypic variation occurred within nurseries rather than between them, pointing to a potentially dominant role of fixed genetic effects in setting thermal tolerance and widespread distribution of tolerant individuals throughout the population. The identification of tolerant individuals provides immediately actionable information to optimize nursery and restoration programmes for Florida's threatened staghorn corals. This work further provides a blueprint for future efforts to identify and source thermally tolerant corals for conservation interventions worldwide. 

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) andCO₂partial pressures (pCO₂) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed‐effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community‐level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data andIPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species,Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa,andPorites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature andpCO₂. In the business‐as‐usualCO₂emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end‐of‐century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present‐day rates.Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature andpCO₂within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end‐of‐century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reducedCO₂emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10–100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species likeS. sidereaare not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reducedCO₂emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification.